Musing about winners and losers

I’m still reading Pip Coburn’s The Change Function, where, amongst other things, he tips a number of winner and loser technologies.

It must have been over twenty years ago when I read William Murray’s Tip on a Dead Crab. In those days, if you were into sporting mystery, the only choices you had were Dick Francis or Dick Francis. There wasn’t even a Stephen Dobyns around. [Yes I did take my mystery reading seriously in those days, and still do.]
One of the things I really liked about Murray’s story was the story behind the title. Forgive my memory, it’s been a long time, but what I remember goes like this. Somewhere, maybe it was set in Australia, they used to bet on crabs. The bet was simple. Each crab had a number on its “back”. All the crabs were in a basket. The basket was emptied in the centre of a large circle on the ground. After n minutes, the crab nearest to the centre at the time was declared the winner.

I don’t know much about horse racing, but I was always under the impression that professional gamblers were interested in horses guaranteed to lose; there were never any guarantees about winning. So it was with a wry smile I read about Tip On A Dead Crab, since the tip, despite being on a dead creature, actually guaranteed a win.

And it was with all this in mind that I read Pip’s statements on future winners and losers. Which were the more valuable tips, the winners or the losers? I’m still working my way thru the book, so comments will only follow later.

Just thinking aloud. What would be more valuable for an enterprise CIO? I think it depends on the specific technologies and their entry/exit costs, but it made me think.

Let me know what you think

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