Where Agile meets Planning

One has to be careful with the word “agile”. If you were an accountant, how would you feel if someone described you as agile? Other than in the pure physical sense, I guess.

I digress.

I’ve experienced a lot of pushback whenever I’ve seen agile techniques being used, perhaps even more pushback than I’ve seen for social software as a whole. When I’ve tried to analyse the sources of the pushback, the Conscientious Objectors can be classified as follows:

  • The In-Concrete Setter: I need robust reliable plans, not all this mumbo-jumbo. I’ll give you use-case.
  • The Futurologist: I have a long-term business to run, with long-term plans. You’re just not helping me. Get real.
  • The Educated Dinosaur: Just tell me what I am going to get, when and for how much. Is that too much to ask?
  • The Legless Ostrich:  You’ve known about this for at least a year now, how can you say this is new?
  • The Mad-Hatter-In-Reverse: (A close relative of the In-Concrete Setter) You’re late, you’re late, for a very important date [with apologies to Lewis Carroll and, if memory serves me right, Danny Kaye]

Much of Agile is about the most effective way of discovering amorphous requirements. Agile does this in many ways: use of user stories, fast iteration models, pair programming, collocation in general, better in-team communications, more bite-sized chunks of work, test-driven design, natural selection, whatever.

All these techniques are designed to make the software meet the user’s expectations in terms of function and look and feel and even performance.

Where Agile is sometimes oversold is in the context of estimation. To me, software estimation is a bit like growing ear hair. It takes time to do it well. There aren’t that many short cuts.

And when you look at the conscientious objector list above, you will find that most of them have the core of their objection rooted in the lack of predictability of planning. For some reason they seem to forget that they never had real predictability with the waterfall model, especially not when requirements were amorphous or tacit.

I’ve been wondering about how to fix this for a while, and many years ago this drove me down an odd road, looking at Erik Brynjolfsson’s work on Incomplete Contracts. I kept on feeling that until and unless we managed to capture the value of Agile (although it wasn’t called that then, we just used terms like Fast Iteration) in a comprehensible contract, we would always face an uphill task.

So it looked like we would be stuck with Predictably Wrong rather than Provisionally Right.

Which is why I found this piece on Agile Contracts by Alistair Cockburn a timely reminder to delve deeper into the Agile contracting process. Alistair lists 10 contract types:

  • Fixed-price fixed-scope (and possibly fixed-time)
  • Fixed-price fixed-scope (and possibly fixed-time) but collaborate with the customer to alter scope anyway
  • Time and materials
  • Not-to-exceed with fixed fee
  • Fixed price per story point
  • Bob Martin’s idea, an updated version of shared-risk shared-reward model
  • Venture-capital financing model
  • Incremental delivery with payment on incremental acceptance
  • Jonathan House’s idea, fixed-base-price with success/failure ratchets
  • Time and materials variant

I tend to think the answer is in none of these, but in option theory. I’m not the first to think that way, but what Alistair has done is reawaken in me the need to complete that analysis. So thank you Mr Cockburn.
I’d love to hear from readers about their experiences in this regard. Any takers? What works? What doesn’t? Why?

Crossed lines

underground beastiesI thought this was wonderful, the kind of stuff I wouldn’t hear about except for the Web. Take a look at this site, where someone is selling merchandise consisting of animal shapes traced on the iconic London Tube map.

Thanks to Konrad for the tip-off. [Yes, I make it a habit to visit blogs that link to me, more out of curiosity than courtesy, but a combination nevertheless.]

Hard feelings about words said

Interesting times. Following Steve Job’s Heartbeat post, Edgar Bronfman, the head of Warner Music, is reported to have made scathing comments about Jobs’ vision of a DRM-free world. Here’s a quote:

“The notion that music does not deserve the same protections as software, television, films, video games, or other intellectual property, simply because there is an unprotected legacy product available in the physical world is completely without logic or merit.”

That, on a day when Warner Music announced a 74% drop in first-quarter net income. Interesting.

At the same time, EMI announced that they were considering ditching DRM completely, and going for protection-free MP3s; it appears they are assessing the value of upfront guarantees from online retailers, having been delighted with their DRM free experiments involving Norah Jones amongst others.

Two firms. Two firms in markets similar enough for them to consider merging not that long ago. Two firms with diametrically opposed views on a key strategic issues. I wonder what would have happened if the merger had gone ahead…..

Makes me think of the old Paul Simon song….

There’s been some hard feelings here
About some words that were said
There’s been some hard feelings here
And what is more
There’s been a bloody purple nose
And some bloody purple clothes
That were messing up the lobby floor
It’s just apartment house rules
So all you ‘partment fools
Remember : one man’s ceiling
is another man’s floor
Remember: one man’s ceiling
is another man’s floor

Paul Simon, One Man’s Ceiling is Another Man’s Floor

The divide is going to get that stark, floors and ceilings. Interesting how the Apple suit between the Beatles and Jobs gets sorted out shortly before this kerfuffle. And you know something? I thought I heard Beatle music during the last MacWorld Stevenote…..

Of meteorites and aliens

alienTwo aliens were visiting Earth to research the local customs. They split up so that they could learn more in the time allowed. When they met to share their knowledge, the first alien told of a religious ceremony it had seen.

“I went to a large green field shaped like a meteorite crater. Around the edges, several thousand worshippers had gathered. Then I saw two priests walk to the centre of the field to a rectangular area and they hammered six spears into the ground, three at each end. Then eleven more priests walked out, clad in white robes. Then two high priests wielding clubs walked to the centre and one of the other priests started throwing a red orb at the ones with the clubs.”

“Gee,” replied the other alien, “what happened next?”

“Then it began to rain.”

I’ve been following cricket for so long now I thought I’d heard them all. Live and learn….

[With thanks to cricinfo. com; only minor edits performed.]

More on Jobs and DRM and ostriches and sand

ostrichesI could never have predicted it. Obviously there’s a lot of buzz about what Steve said; no surprise, some people want him to run for President now.

What wasn’t obvious to me was the nature of the buzz. It isn’t about the “what” of the argument, removal of DRM. It isn’t about the “how” of the argument, the process by which we are going to see the removal of DRM.

Surprisingly, much of the debate has been about the “why”. Looking for deep philosophical reasons (or for that matter deep-pocketed business reasons) that would explain why Steve said what he did. [Reminds me of Jim Morrison and Mr Mojo Risin].

Yesterday, we had many people commenting on the Europeanness of the Big Four music-related “content owners” ….. suggesting that Steve had some ulterior motive for attacking Europe. What tosh. Suitable only for the ostriches who think that Steve’s attitude towards DRM was about music and music alone.

Now today, I’ve seen more unusual variants on the story. Mr Jobs did what he did because the “European” regulator was going to insist on it anyway; tosh again. The unadulterated variety. Only suitable for the ostriches who think that “European” regulators have some unforseen power and efficacy.

And there’s a third group who believe that Jobs can’t do it anyway, accusing him of playing to the galleries with zero downside.

I prefer not to look for hidden agendas and conspiracies and vested interests. That’s as bad as expecting people to behave rationally…..

So what do I think? I think that Jobs has worked out that implementing DRM will not scale. That the experience he’s had with Vista (yes, Vista) and with the iPhone has finally irked him beyond tolerance. That he recognises DRM for what it is, a Path Pollutant. And that he sees an opportunity to stop the pollution.

Strangely enough, Vista may prove to be a real boon in this respect. Finally showing people what a load of $%£ DRM is, how difficult it is to implement, how terrible the impact on the common man, and how futile the effort anyway.

Personally, I like what Cory said about it. Go take a look. Particularly the Disney bit.

The walls are coming down. And the gardens are getting connected again. Not channelled.